Month: January 2011
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Overstating Reagan’s effect on public opinion
Time’s cover story on Ronald Reagan’s influence on President Obama opens with this anecdote (emphasis added): In May 2010, Barack Obama invited a small group of presidential historians to the White House for a working supper in the Family Dining Room… [A]s the conversation progressed, it became clear to several in the room that Obama
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Twitter roundup
Brendan Nyhan Jan 28, 2011 at 8:16pm Twitter roundup (1/26-1/28) BrendanNyhan Jan 28, 2011 at 7:31pm Josh Huder on the relationship between incivility and productivity in Congress http://j.mp/eAhim1 Causal inference issues but interesting Can Incivility help Congress? | Rule22 BrendanNyhan Jan 28, 2011 at 2:24pm CNN shifts from Egypt coverage to … a new makeup
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Twitter roundup
Brendan Nyhan Jan 26, 2011 at 7:15pm Twitter roundup (1/25-1/26) BrendanNyhan Jan 26, 2011 at 12:45pm .@mysterypollster dissects the instant SOTU polls: http://j.mp/gzqe3e http://j.mp/foQl1V Speech watchers heavily skewed D as expected. State Of The Union 2011: Speech, Reaction & Commentary (LIVE UPDATES)WASHINGTON — Pleading for unity in a newly divided government, President Barack Obama implored
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State of the Union media prebuttal
In the spirit of my election night bingo post, here’s a quick prebuttal to the spin you will hear from the press tonight in its coverage of President Obama’s State of the Union: -Instant polls of people who watch the speech are meaningless (it’s a non-random sample skewed toward the president’s supporters, among other problems).
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Twitter roundup
Brendan Nyhan Jan 25, 2011 at 7:00pm From my Twitter roundup (1/20-1/25) BrendanNyhan Jan 25, 2011 at 3:03pm .@davidfrum on how Palin supporters have shifted to anti-anti-Palinism as defending her becomes increasingly untenable http://j.mp/hw6fmI Time for Palin Apologists to Let Go | FrumForumMany Palin backers have moved to a second degree of Palin-mania: They no
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Groups versus swings in elections
Via email, Alan Abramowitz sends a plot showing that President Obama’s approval levels with various demographic and political groups in the January 17-23 Gallup poll are almost perfectly correlated with his 2008 vote share among those groups: Abramowitz’s finding is consistent with exit polls which showed that the swing against the Democrats in 2010 was
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Twitter roundup
Brendan Nyhan Jan 20, 2011 at 12:33pm From my Twitter feed (1/17-1/20) BrendanNyhan Jan 20, 2011 at 12:31pm Part 2 of the BMJ vaccine series: "Secrets of the MMR scare: How the vaccine crisis was meant to make money" http://j.mp/fa9qnh How the vaccine crisis was meant to make money — Deer 342 — bmj.comDeer, Brian
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Sarah Palin’s poll numbers get even worse
Sarah Palin’s image problems have gotten even worse. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted January 14-16 (immediately after the controversy over her ham-handed response to the shootings in Arizona) finds that perceptions of Palin have declined significantly since October: A new national poll indicates that 56 percent of all Americans have an unfavorable view
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Beware claims of “turning points” after AZ shootings
One of the ways that the media hypes the significance of events in the news is by declaring them “turning points.” It’s important to be skeptical of these statements, which frequently don’t hold up to scrutiny. Despite the literal meaning of the term, journalistic claims about “turning points” are best understood as metaphors that are
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Twitter roundup
Brendan Nyhan Jan 17, 2011 at 2:32pm From my Twitter feed (1/11-1/17) BrendanNyhan Jan 17, 2011 at 2:31pm The hack psychiatrist strikes again! Krauthammer accuses Krugman of mental illness: http://j.mp/fKapnj Backstory: http://j.mp/ifBCYS In Tucson Shooting Fallout, Rightbloggers Find a New Public Enemy #1: Paul Krugman – New York News – Runnin’ ScaredIf you’ve quit paying