 From my Twitter feed (6/14-6/20)Jun 20, 2011 at 11:45 AM |
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Cool new dynamic forecasting model for state-level presidential election outcomes from Emory’s Drew Linzer http://t.co/FmieQ1Q (PDF)
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| http://userwww.service.emory.e du/~dlinzer/Linzer-prestracker .pdf | |
| Jun 20, 2011 at 4:18 PM | |
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Remember ’08 was uniform swing, not much state variation MT @TheFix State unemployment #’s should make Obama feel better http://t.co/x1QvmIN
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 For Obama in 2012, closer look at state unemployment numbers shows silver lining The national unemployment rate – 9.1 percent in May – paints a grim political picture for President Obama as he turns his attention to the 2012 race. But dig slightly further into the numbers an… |
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| Jun 20, 2011 at 3:27 PM | |
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Bad news for Romney/Huntsman – 20-35% wouldn’t vote for Mormon. Release: http://j.mp/l2yvLc Article (gated): http://j.mp/mTe7Se
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 Religious bias still hurdle for presidential candidates, study shows | Research News @ Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt University by Ann Marie Deer Owens | Posted on Thursday, Jun. 2, 2011 – 12:39 PM A significant number of American voters remain biased against Mormons and other religious minorities, thereby raising the hu… |
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| ScienceDirect – Electoral Studies : Two Steps Forward, One Step Back? Bias in 2008 Presidential Election Brett V. Bensona, , Jennifer L. Merollaa, and John G. Geer, a, a Vanderbilt University United States The candidates running during the 2008 presidential campaign were the most diverse in America… | |
| Jun 20, 2011 at 2:51 PM | |
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.@jamesfallows busts journalists quoting from press releases — people should check for this more often http://j.mp/l5X65v
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 The Glamorous Life of a Journalist (WashTimes / FT / Weiner Dept) – James Fallows – National – The Atlantic Sign up to receive our three free newsletters Everyone from President Obama to Ted Koppel is bemoaning a decline in journalistic substance,… To environmentalists, “clean coal” is an insulting ox… |
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| Jun 20, 2011 at 2:30 PM | |
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John Sides of @monkeycageblog and @jbplainblog on the myth of gubernatorial coattails http://j.mp/mfajFU http://j.mp/iOE6FP
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| Gubernatorial Coattails — The Monkey Cage The first statement, regarding presidential elections, is wrong-if we interpret “advantage” to mean “presidential candidates get a statistically significant boost in states where their party con… | |
| A plain blog about politics: Governors as Assets in Presidential Elections John Sides has a good item today on the weak statistical basis for assertions that presidential candidates are helped by same-party governors in swing states. This is one of those chestnuts of A… | |
| Jun 20, 2011 at 12:39 PM | |
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.@forecasterenten responds to @fivethirtyeight on the performance of the Hibbs presidential elections model http://j.mp/lKhWNC
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 Margin of Error: The Hibbs Model DOES Work at Predicting and Explaining Elections Presidential elections are all about the economy, or are they? Those who have followed my writing know that, at least at this point in the election cycle (far awayfrom the actual 2012 general e… |
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| Jun 20, 2011 at 12:36 PM | |
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Vast debate overreaction, no? MT @fivethirtyeight: Intrade bettors give Perry (21%) twice the chance of Pawlenty (11%). http://t.co/BQSSahS
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 Intrade – Markets Last prediction was: $6.02 / share Today’s Change: $0.00 (0.0%) 60.2% CHANCE Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) (Open to Suggestions) |
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| Jun 19, 2011 at 9:17 PM | |
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Isn’t 2016 Politico’s beat? MT @nickconfessore: AP on the 2016 political bet Cuomo makes by pushing gay marriage http://bit.ly/mtBAds
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 NY Gov. Cuomo the new face of gay marriage rights | The Associated Press | Politics | San Francisco Examiner Gov. Andrew Cuomo has become a prominent champion of legalized gay marriage, pushing his state into the center of the national debate over an emotional and divisive issue. In the past week, the … |
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| Jun 19, 2011 at 9:15 PM | |
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Converse of what some said about Bush MT @conor64: 1st reader’s argument is a perfect example of partisan mind’s perils http://bit.ly/jKi7Rr
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 The Case for Stiff-Arming Congress on Libya – James Fallows – Politics – The Atlantic James Fallows – James Fallows is a national correspondent for The Atlantic and has written for the magazine since the late 1970s. He has reported extensively from outside the United States, and … |
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| Jun 18, 2011 at 3:20 AM | |
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Mark Penn on how Obama could lose http://j.mp/l2i0R3 Lots of lame punditry, repeats false Bush 41 scanner myth – see http://j.mp/j3wAjk
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 Mark Penn on How Barack Obama Could Lose the 2012 Presidential Election: Politics: GQ If there’s anyone who knows that nothing is a slam dunk in politics, it’s Mark Penn. (Remember President Hillary Clinton?) The chief adviser to Hillary and Bill understands a thing or two about … |
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| snopes.com: President Bush and the Grocery Scanner Today, for instance, [Bush] emerged from 11 years in Washington’s choicest executive mansions to confront the modern supermarket. Visiting the exhibition hall of the National Grocers Association… | |
| Jun 16, 2011 at 1:35 PM | |
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.@conor64 fears Romney would have to pick extreme VP, hurting GOP http://j.mp/j2b25C Possible but VPs rarely matter (Palin is the exception)
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 The Conservative Temptation to Go Rogue – Conor Friedersdorf – Politics – The Atlantic Why a moderate Republican nominee may inspire an especially immoderate campaign season |
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| Jun 16, 2011 at 1:15 PM | |
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.@smotus carefully recasts the unemployment/pres. elections relationship – useful for journos on what we do/don’t know http://j.mp/kYrOVt
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 Enik Rising: More on unemployment and presidential elections |
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| Jun 16, 2011 at 1:09 PM | |
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More from @jbplainblog on how the political climate creates charisma: http://bit.ly/ivlLOB My original post: http://j.mp/jlBu8I
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| A plain blog about politics: The Winner Will Have Charisma TAPPED blogger Sarah Laskow believes that Mitt Romney’s “lack of charisma on the trail could very well cost him whatever chance he has at winning the Republican nomination and the presidency” Wh… | |
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| Jun 16, 2011 at 12:56 PM | |
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RT @davidfrum: Conservative media’s pay to play: why it matters http://bit.ly/jS2cLW
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| Conservative Media’s Pay-To-Play Deals | FrumForum Why are conservatives so ready to accept behaviors in their own media that they themselves would damn as outrageous if they occurred in non-conservative media? This is an issue I address in my l… | |
| Jun 15, 2011 at 11:38 PM | |
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RT @kwcollins State legislators say the darndest things, constituent-contact edition: http://t.co/ScfyA5s
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 Rep. Sends Constituent Semi-Literate Email Comparing Unions to Hitler Max Read -It’s always nice to hear about politicians who respond to their constituents personally. Even if those responses are barely coherent expressions of resentment and ignorance! Last year,… |
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| Jun 15, 2011 at 3:10 PM | |
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.@kdrum on the stubborn myth that Obama wants to revive the Fairness Doctrine, which even his FCC chair opposes http://j.mp/l5pw8O
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| Killing the Fairness Doctrine. Again | Mother Jones Like what you’re reading? Get the best of MoJo three times a week. The Federal Communications Commission plans to officially kill the Fairness Doctrine. Rush Limbaugh can finally rest easy. By S… | |
| Jun 15, 2011 at 2:37 PM | |
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TPaw: Tax cuts ‘almost always’ raise revenues http://j.mp/jXX1NW Will anyone ask him why so many Bush economists say no? http://j.mp/czPqya
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| Pawlenty: Tax cuts ‘almost always’ raise revenues – Ezra Klein – The Washington Post “As people look back to the historical examples, there’s been other chapters where tax cuts have been enacted, and almost always they raise revenues if you just isolate the effect of the tax cuts.” | |
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| Jun 15, 2011 at 1:53 PM | |
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Thoughts on how to overcome motivated reasoning in online media design by @wfrick http://j.mp/lyuq9Q http://j.mp/jV3CeM
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 The Future of Media Bias – Walter Frick – Technology – The Atlantic Context can affect bias, and on the Web — if I can riff on Lessig — code is context. So why not design media that accounts for the user’s biases and helps him overcome them? I have a good frie… |
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| Jun 15, 2011 at 1:27 PM | |
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PEJ: Weiner 4th-most covered scandal involving elected rep since ’07 – #1 Blago, #2 Spitzer, #3 Craig http://j.mp/l4ANhm (via @grahamdavida)
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 Weiner’s Bad Week is the No. 1 Story | Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ) The Lead Teaser: The media were riveted last week by a made-for-headlines scandal involving one of the more combative members of Congress. The U.S. economy, the chaos in the Mideast and the… |
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| Jun 14, 2011 at 7:06 PM | |