Month: May 2014
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New NYT: How old is too old for president?
My new Upshot column is on the influence of partisanship on attitudes toward the age of presidential candidates – specifically, how the views of Democrats are likely to change now that Hillary Clinton is the likely older candidate instead of John McCain, Bob Dole, or Ronald Reagan: Does a candidate’s age matter in presidential elections?
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New NYT: Why LBJ/Obama comparisons can mislead
In a new Upshot column for the 50th anniversary of the Great Society speech, I take on the LBJ mythology that plays a central part in the Green Lantern theory of presidential power: Lyndon Johnson was not known as a great orator, but 50 years ago today he stood before graduates at the University of
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New NYT: Jeb Bush’s electoral mismatch problem
Why is Jeb Bush struggling to find a message that will resonate in the 2016 invisible primary contest for the GOP presidential nomination? One reason, I argue in a new Upshot column, is the mismatch between the Florida electorate he previously served and the national GOP primary electorate: The former Florida governor Jeb Bush is
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New NYT: The role of elites in Holocaust denial
In a new Upshot column that was published yesterday, I explore the relationship between domestic elite conflict and misperceptions using new survey data on Holocaust denial. Here’s how it begins: Why do misperceptions become widespread? More often than not, they have been spread by elites seeking political advantage. Many of the most significant myths and
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New NYT: Democrats’ issue advantage won’t save them
In my new Upshot column, I show that the Democrats’ current advantage on major issues in the polls is unlikely to allow them to escape what appears to be an unfavorable electoral landscape: Democrats know they face a difficult midterm campaign landscape, but they can cling to one seeming reason for hope: The public agrees
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New NYT: The wisdom of partisan crowds
My new Upshot column is on pundit predictions and how the miracle of aggregation can make even a group of individuals with strong partisan biases collectively more accurate than they are individually. Here’s how it begins: Watching pundits and politicos speculate about what will happen in a coming election can feel like an exercise in
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New NYT: Clinton’s real problem is Obama fatigue
My new column for The Upshot focuses on a potential threat to Hillary Clinton’s presidential prospects that is more significant than Benghazi – Obama fatigue after eight years of Democratic control of the White House. Here’s how it begins: The latest investigation into the Benghazi attack reminds us that the issue isn’t going away any
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New NYT: Vaccine skeptics can be immune to education
In a column posted at The Upshot on Thursday, I draw on my research with Jason Reifler, Sean Richey, and Gary Freed to explore the reasons that educational efforts in support of childhood vaccines may sometimes fail: Vaccines will prevent the deaths of tens of thousands of children born this year over their lifetimes. So