Month: January 2015
-
New NYT: Ignore the early polls
From my new Upshot column: Public service announcement: For now, you should ignore surveys testing potential Democrat/Republican matchups for the 2016 presidential election. I’m referring to polls like The Washington Post-ABC News survey released last week, which made headlines with the finding that Hillary Clinton enjoys a big lead against Republicans like Jeb Bush and
-
New NYT: The GOP field in historical perspective
From my new Upshot column: It’s audition time for presidential candidates in the “invisible primary” — the critical period before the state primaries and caucuses in which party elites help choose the eventual nominees. While Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite on the Democratic side, internal divisions among Republicans are making it hard for pundits
-
New NYT: Public attention to the State of the Union
From my new Upshot column: State of the Union addresses — like most presidential speeches – rarely produce a bump in job approval ratings or bring around lawmakers of the opposite party. So why does tonight matter? [T]he issues presidents emphasize in the State of the Union seem to affect which areas are rated most