It’s audition time for presidential candidates in the “invisible primary” — the critical period before the state primaries and caucuses in which party elites help choose the eventual nominees.
While Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite on the Democratic side, internal divisions among Republicans are making it hard for pundits — or betting markets — to predict the likely G.O.P. nominee. Endorsements by donors, elected officials and other elites are the best observable indicator of which candidate has the party support needed to win the nomination, but few have been made at this point…
I’ve therefore adopted a different approach to help size up the Republican nomination contest. Taking inspiration from sports analysts who use qualitative and quantitative methods to identify the best comparisons for individual athletes, I’ve identified the historical candidate who I think most resembles each of the top six G.O.P. contenders. I also created a computer algorithm that matched current and former candidates…