Brendan Nyhan

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  • Obama smear watch

    Media Matters notes that the Washington Times quoted a man in Indiana saying “I can’t stand [Barack Obama]… He’s a Muslim. He’s not even pro-American as far as I’m concerned” without pointing out that Obama is a Christian. Similar reports appeared in the LA Times, the websites of the Washington Post and the Baltimore Sun,

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  • Hillary’s latest extrapolation fallacy

    Hillary Clinton has sent a memo to House Democrats touting her victories in swing districts. The problem is that the memo, like so much of Hillary’s electability arguments, depends on the fallacy that primaries are an accurate guide to general election outcomes. You just can’t assume that to be true. What we need instead is

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  • Debates with my colleagues

    Discussions that have I’ve been having with my colleagues at PIPC this week: (1) What happens to Joe Lieberman if the Democrats take the White House and expand their Senate majority to 56 or 57 seats? Despite his support for McCain, I think Democrats will want his vote on non-war-related issues, so they’ll hold their

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  • Ensign: Liberals want to weaken defense

    In a fundraising email to supporters yesterday, NRSC chairman John Ensign suggested that one of the top legislative priorities of “Big Labor, MoveOn.org and extremist environmental groups” is “weakening our national defense”: Dear Republican Supporter, Big Labor, MoveOn.org and extremist environmental groups have promised to spend millions to elect angry liberals like Al Franken to

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  • The Post fact-checks Bill Clinton’s face!

    Self-parody alert — Michael Dobbs, the Washington Post’s “Fact Checker,” is fact-checking Bill Clinton’s facial expressions: “Tonight we’ve come from behind, we’ve broken the tie, and thanks to you it’s full speed on to the White House.” –Hillary Clinton, May 6, 2008. Brave, defiant words from Hillary Clinton. But observe the facial expressions. For many

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  • Chris Matthews and Harold Ford enlighten us

    In the annals of great Chris Matthews moments, this interview with former Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is one of my favorites — it’s swami time! MATTHEWS: Do you think Hillary Rodham Clinton has the soul of a vice president? Do you think she would really feel right about that job? She was first lady,

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  • Obama support in NC and IN by race

    Time to update my previous work on state-level predictors of Obama support. It turns out that Indiana and North Carolina were strikingly consistent with the trends in racial voting we’ve seen thus far. Here is a graph of total white and black support for Obama by the state’s black population (click for an enlarged version):

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  • Gravel-mentum! Gravel-anche!

    Who are the 12,000 people who voted for Mike Gravel yesterday in North Carolina? And what planet are they from? I’m so confused. Update 5/7 2:28 PM: Phil Klinkner suggested an even better title. Watch out below!

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  • Obama’s anti-political utopianism

    I thought Barack Obama gave a great speech tonight, but it’s just silly for him to claim that he will end negative politics: I didn’t expect when I ran for president that I would avoid this kind of politics [GOP character assassination]; I ran because it is time to end it … We will end

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  • McCain v. the fundamentals

    Despite all of the questions that are being raised about the electability of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, the reality is that the political fundamentals are heavily tilted in their favor. Yesterday, Bill Kristol reported that the McCain campaign realizes how difficult a task it faces: Some conservatives are giddy at the thought — kidding

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