Uncategorized
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Obama’s post-Iowa bounce
Charles Franklin’s updated aggregate polling estimates show a significant Obama bounce in New Hampshire — it’s real: Given the positive press he’ll get out of this win and his increasingly likely victory in South Carolina, it’s getting harder to see how she stops him, even if she does win the Nevada caucus. The futures markets
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Andy Rooney embarrasses himself
Dear CBS, Who allowed Andy Rooney’s offensive rant about how the presidential contenders’ names aren’t presidential (i.e. WASPy) enough on the air? He’s been a joke for years but this one really crosses the line. Yours, Brendan Nyhan
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Howard Dean’s lack of restraint
I finally read Matt Bai’s The Argument: Billionaires, Bloggers, and the Battle to Remake Democratic Politics over the break. I’ll have more to say about it soon, but my favorite anecdote has to be this illustration from 2005 (which I missed) of how Howard Dean often fails to restrain himself verbally: The other main part
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The strange premise of Big Think
I don’t understand the premise behind the new site Big Think, which is profiled in today’s New York Times. The article calls it “a YouTube for ideas” and says the business model is to “attract enough viewers, then sell advertising,” but why would we expect a wonky general interest video site to ever become large
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All polarization is not equal
Josh Marshall’s post yesterday illustrates why Ezra Klein is wrong (here and here) to suggest that all prominent political figures end up becoming equally polarizing — John McCain isn’t (yet, at least): Yesterday, Kos posted some Rasmussen numbers of favorable and unfavorable numbers of major presidential contenders. Kos’s point was that whichever candidate you choose
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Myths about primaries
John Sides is doing yeoman’s work at The Monkey Cage debunking myths about the Iowa caucus and the primary process. Here are two of the most interesting posts: 1. New Hampshire doesn’t have a better track record than Iowa of predicting the eventual nominee. 2. Democratic and Republican primary voters are not substantially different than
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Cohen’s anti-Obama narrative
In a recent column, Richard Cohen correctly criticizes Barack Obama for getting his facts wrong (the number of black people in college actually exceeds the number of people in jail), but then links it to questions about the accuracy of Obama’s first book and suggests that the Democratic presidential candidate may have a truth-telling problem.
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Giving thanks for Rudy’s drubbing
My #1 concern in the presidential election is the defeat of Rudy Giuliani, so I have to join Steve Benen and Josh Marshall in giving thanks for his terrible showing yesterday. Some day the phrase “February 5th strategy” will be a joke among insiders…
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Michael Barone’s “16 year itch”
Michael Barone: The metrically minded will see a common thread. Every 16 years–in 1976, 1992 and now in 2008–American voters have seemed less interested in experience and credentials and more interested in a new face unconnected to the current political establishment. What can explain this 16-year itch? Chance. As Atrios would say, this has been
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The coming Huckabee beatdown
A few weeks ago, I pointed to the signs of an anti-Huckabee backlash. While liberals’ soft spot for Huckabee is gone at this point, the Huck haters on the right have obviously lost round 1 (i.e., Iowa). However, there’s almost no precedent for someone winning the nomination with as little elite support as Huckabee (see,