Uncategorized
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New NYT: When beliefs and facts collide
From my new Upshot column, which will run tomorrow in Sunday Review: Do Americans understand the scientific consensus about issues like climate change and evolution? At least for a substantial portion of the public, it seems like the answer is no… As a result of surveys like these, scientists and advocates have concluded that many
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New NYT: How Hillary Clinton is like John McCain
From my new Upshot column: Hillary Clinton’s artificially inflated poll numbers have made her seem like an especially strong presidential candidate, but the Clinton bubble is quickly coming to an end. Earlier in June, Ross Douthat of The New York Times noted that she has been “leading every potential Republican candidate by around 10 points”
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The economic damage of recession news
From my new Upshot column: Real gross domestic product (G.D.P.) in the United States shrank by 1 percent in the first quarter of the year. What made this announcement seem so significant? We already knew that the economy did not perform well in the first part of the year — the Commerce Department’s Bureau of
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Cantor’s loss and the value of connections
From my new Upshot column: House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning primary loss Tuesday night will reshape the landscape not only within the Republican caucus but on K Street as well. As Dave Brat, his primary challenger, highlighted in his campaign, Mr. Cantor had a close relationship with business lobbying groups like the Chamber of
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Voter fraud is rare, but myth is widespread
From my new Upshot column: Is vote fraud common in American politics? Not according to United States District Judge Lynn Adelman, who examined the evidence from Wisconsin and ruled in late April that “virtually no voter impersonation occurs” in the state and that “no evidence suggests that voter-impersonation fraud will become a problem at any
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New NYT: How old is too old for president?
My new Upshot column is on the influence of partisanship on attitudes toward the age of presidential candidates – specifically, how the views of Democrats are likely to change now that Hillary Clinton is the likely older candidate instead of John McCain, Bob Dole, or Ronald Reagan: Does a candidate’s age matter in presidential elections?
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New NYT: Why LBJ/Obama comparisons can mislead
In a new Upshot column for the 50th anniversary of the Great Society speech, I take on the LBJ mythology that plays a central part in the Green Lantern theory of presidential power: Lyndon Johnson was not known as a great orator, but 50 years ago today he stood before graduates at the University of
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New NYT: Jeb Bush’s electoral mismatch problem
Why is Jeb Bush struggling to find a message that will resonate in the 2016 invisible primary contest for the GOP presidential nomination? One reason, I argue in a new Upshot column, is the mismatch between the Florida electorate he previously served and the national GOP primary electorate: The former Florida governor Jeb Bush is
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New NYT: The role of elites in Holocaust denial
In a new Upshot column that was published yesterday, I explore the relationship between domestic elite conflict and misperceptions using new survey data on Holocaust denial. Here’s how it begins: Why do misperceptions become widespread? More often than not, they have been spread by elites seeking political advantage. Many of the most significant myths and
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New NYT: Democrats’ issue advantage won’t save them
In my new Upshot column, I show that the Democrats’ current advantage on major issues in the polls is unlikely to allow them to escape what appears to be an unfavorable electoral landscape: Democrats know they face a difficult midterm campaign landscape, but they can cling to one seeming reason for hope: The public agrees