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New NYT: The wisdom of partisan crowds
My new Upshot column is on pundit predictions and how the miracle of aggregation can make even a group of individuals with strong partisan biases collectively more accurate than they are individually. Here’s how it begins: Watching pundits and politicos speculate about what will happen in a coming election can feel like an exercise in
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New NYT: Clinton’s real problem is Obama fatigue
My new column for The Upshot focuses on a potential threat to Hillary Clinton’s presidential prospects that is more significant than Benghazi – Obama fatigue after eight years of Democratic control of the White House. Here’s how it begins: The latest investigation into the Benghazi attack reminds us that the issue isn’t going away any
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New NYT: Vaccine skeptics can be immune to education
In a column posted at The Upshot on Thursday, I draw on my research with Jason Reifler, Sean Richey, and Gary Freed to explore the reasons that educational efforts in support of childhood vaccines may sometimes fail: Vaccines will prevent the deaths of tens of thousands of children born this year over their lifetimes. So
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New NYT: Another season of ‘Dynasty’ for voters
My new Upshot column for the New York Times focuses on the social science of political dynasties like the Bushes and Clintons. Here’s how it begins: Maybe it’s time for Americans to admit that we like the familiar faces and names of politicians from famous families. How else can we make sense of the continuing
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New NYT: The downside of registering outrage
My first post is up at The Upshot, the new politics and policy site at the New York Times where I’m now a contributor. Here’s how it begins: Should the United States be devoting so much effort to criticizing the anti-Semitic fliers that appeared last week in Ukraine? …There are compelling reasons to take anti-Semitism
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New CJR: How can academics contribute to the press?
My final column for CJR is about how social scientists can contribute to media coverage of politics. Here’s an excerpt: This is my last post for CJR’s United States Project—starting this month, I will instead serve as a contributor to David Leonhardt’s new data-driven site at the New York Times. As I shift roles in
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New study in Pediatrics on vaccine messaging
I have a new study on the effectiveness of vaccine messaging with Jason Reifler, Sean Richey, and Gary Freed that is out today in Pediatrics (pre-publication version): Effective Messages in Vaccine Promotion: A Randomized Trial Brendan Nyhan, Jason Reifler, Sean Richey, and Gary L. Freed Pediatrics; originally published online March 3, 2014; DOI: 10.1542/peds.2013-2365 OBJECTIVES:
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New at CJR: Trial heat polls: All heat, no light
My new CJR column points out that the 2016 general election trial heat polls currently being reported now have no predictive value and displace attention from the real action taking place in the invisible primary: We’re still almost three years away from November 2016, but political journalists seem to want to fast-forward past the ongoing
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New at CJR: Putting the bundle back together?
My new column at CJR reports on new research into the civic benefits of newspapers and the challenges facing new journalism business models in preserving those benefits. Here’s how it begins: It seems like ambitious new journalism projects are everywhere these days. The announcement that former New York Times editor Bill Keller will lead a
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New at CJR: Will reporters miss real story on SOTU?
My new column at CJR is on mistakes journalists make in coverage of the State of the Union. Here’s how it begins: The myth of the bully pulpit runs deep in the DNA of political journalists, so it’s no surprise that the importance of the president’s annual State of the Union address to the president’s