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The Obama oil spill/approval narrative spreads
The narrative that President Obama’s approval ratings are being heavily damaged by the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is quickly overwhelming the critical faculties of the media. Last week, I laid down a marker on this point, noting the potential appeal of the spill as a journalistic narrative to dramatize Obama’s political difficulties.
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No evidence for Mellman’s “magic” 50% approval
Last week, I criticized Matt Bai’s claim that it was an “ominous sign” for Democrats that President Obama’s approval rating is under 50%. Writing in The Hill, top Democratic pollster Mark Mellman goes even further, calling 50% approval a “magic number” for midterm elections: [P]erhaps there are some magic numbers after all. Take the effect
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Questioning the popularity of fact-checking
In a post yesterday, NYU journalism prof/blogger Jay Rosen argued for more fact-checking in political journalism, citing a Greg Sargent post reporting that the AP’s fact-checks are the most popular articles that the wire service publishes: Fact checking is good journalism. Journalists should take a lesson from the success of the fact-checking site, Politfact.com. I
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The relative normalcy of Obama politics
Reading the opening of David Remnick’s book The Bridge last night, I was struck by how small a role race has played in Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and time in office relative to what we might have expected a few years ago. His popular vote total in 2008 was very close to what the leading
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Why I’m skeptical of Nate Silver’s pollster ratings
Mark Blumenthal quoted me in a blog post at Pollster.com (where I frequently cross-post) commenting on Nate Silver’s pollster ratings — here’s what I wrote: It’s not necessarily true that the dummy variable for each firm (i.e. the “raw score”) actually “reflects the pollster’s skill” as Silver states. These estimates instead capture the expected difference
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Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed: -A high point in the history of fact-checking: Politifact investigates Snooki’s claims about the health care reform tanning tax (for the record: true) –TNR’s Jon Chait on the “postmodern scandal” of BP’s CEO watching a yacht race — an entirely image-driven faux controversy -I’m not sure why Eliot Spitzer is seen
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Ross Douthat on liberal Green Lantern-ism
New York Times columnist Ross Douthat correctly diagnoses the surge of Green Lantern-ism among liberals noted here a few days ago: At work in this liberal panic are two intellectual vices, and one legitimate fear. The first vice is the worship of presidential power: the belief that any problem, any crisis, can be swiftly solved
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The Green Lantern theory of the presidency is back!
As liberal discontent grows toward President Obama and Congressional Democrats, TNR’s Jon Chait has been documenting a resurgence of what I call the Green Lantern theory of the presidency. In this fantasy world, all legislative obstacles can be overcome through the sheer exertion of presidential will. As such, when Obama fails to overcome the sixty
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Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed: -TNR’s Jon Chait slams Peggy Noonan’s retreat to the “familiar embrace of mysticism” as an explanation for presidential popularity -Emory’s Alan Abramowitz shows that Democrats have fewer marginal seats to defend than in 1994 –NYT’s Ross Douthat on how members of the cult of the presidency demand the appearance of action
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More on presidential approval in midterm elections
Two important points of followup on Tuesday’s post about how Matt Bai overhyped President Obama’s approval rating as “ominous” for Democrats: 1. First, as Emory’s Alan Abramowitz correctly pointed out in an email to me, “Seat exposure and the midterm dummy variable predict substantial Democratic losses regardless of what happens to either the generic ballot