Brendan Nyhan

My new interview with Brooke Gladstone of On the Media about my new research into the effects of corrective information and the role of doubt in science (MP3):

Once people have a misconception about the news, it can be extremely difficult to make them change their minds – even in the face of hard evidence. Studies have even shown the existence of a “backfire effect,” whereby facts can make people double-down on their false ideas. As Brendan Nyhan, professor of government at Dartmouth College and one of the researchers behind the discovery of the backfire effect, explained to Brooke in 2009, “people were so successful at bringing to mind reasons the correction was wrong that they actually ended up being more convinced than the people who didn’t receive the correction.”

After new research, however, it seems that the backfire effect might not be as strong as once thought – giving hope to anyone invested in the pursuit of a more truthful world. Brooke speaks with Nyhan again about the significance of this new finding and the role of doubt in moving science forward.

My new interview with Virginia Heffernan on Slate’s Trumpcast (MP3):

Virginia Heffernan talks to Brendan Nyhan, a professor of government at Dartmouth, about the president’s many lies, including those in the New York Times interview with Maggie Haberman, Peter Baker, and Michael S. Schmidt.

From my new Upshot column:

Donald J. Trump’s approval ratings are the lowest at this stage of a presidency since modern polling began in the mid-20th century. But his party’s base still appears highly supportive, which has discouraged Republicans in Congress from abandoning the president and his legislative agenda.

Even the most recent Russia revelations seemingly haven’t dented support for Mr. Trump among Republicans, who continue to approve of his job performance at very high rates — 82 percent in an ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday, for instance.

But numbers like these may mask a decline in support for Mr. Trump among his original party base.

At Bright Line Watch, we have released the results of our second expert survey on the state of American democracy. Here is coverage at The Upshot by Claire Cain Miller and Kevin Quealy (where I am a contributor):

American democracy remains healthy, but its health has worsened for the first time in recent history, according to a new survey of 1,126 political scientists.

Three-quarters of respondents said the quality of United States democracy had declined in the last two years, after four decades of stability. Twenty-one percent said there had been no change, and 4 percent said it was healthier.

The survey was the second by Bright Line Watch, a group formed by academics after the presidential election to study democratic performance in the United States over time. Compared with the first survey, conducted in February, a month into Donald J. Trump’s presidency, they said the country was doing worse on a few core democratic principles.

For more, see the Bright Line Watch website.

My new interview with New Hampshire Public Radio’s Rick Ganley about the spread of liberal conspiracy theories during the Trump administration (MP3):

Many of these conspiracy theories or fake news stories have to do with Trump and his campaign’s connections to Russia. What are you seeing?

“I’m seeing a disturbing trend of people taking the very serious and real questions about Russian interference and using that as a pretext for all sorts of wild and unsupported conspiracy theories. These are often coming from internet personalities and people who work on social media, but they’re infiltrating into the discourse more generally through liberal elites who are amplifying them. So we’re seeing a spread of these claims out into the mainstream in a way that I think is potentially worrisome.”

See also my article for The Upshot and Zack Beauchamp’s piece for Vox on this issue.

From my new Upshot column:

Before the recent March for Science, scholars and journalists debated the likely effect of the protest: Would it defend science against politicization or unnecessarily polarize the public on the value of the scientific enterprise?

Some early evidence suggests the march may have widened the divide among liberals and conservatives in their views of scientists but not, crucially, toward the research they conduct.

My new interview with Vermont Public Radio’s Mitch Wertlieb on the state of democratic norms in the United States (MP3):

Have your concerns about an erosion of political norms been eased, or have they increased?

“I would say there’s good news and bad news. Certainly some of the most extreme fears haven’t been realized, and that’s of course welcome.

“But I think in some ways those fears have been caricatured. There was a whole Wall Street Journal editorial that basically said, ‘Trump isn’t Hitler, therefore everyone’s worries about him are invalid.’

“And I think that’s both the wrong comparison, and we’re at far too early a stage to draw any final conclusions about where we are or what damage may be done.”

See also my prior interviews with Wertlieb in December and January on this topic.

A segment in which I’m interviewed from CNN’s The Lead with Jake Tapper:

From my new Upshot column (co-authored with Amanda Taub):

“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts,” goes the saying — one that now seems like a relic of simpler times.

Today, President Trump is sticking with his own facts — his claim that the Obama administration wiretapped him during the election — in the face of testimony to the contrary by the F.B.I. director, James Comey…

Mr. Trump’s claims may appear to his opponents to have been embarrassingly debunked. But social science research suggests that Mr. Trump’s alternative version of reality may appeal to his supporters.

Partisan polarization is now so extreme in the United States that it affects the way that people consume and understand information — the facts they believe, and what events they think are important. The wiretapping allegations could well become part of a partisan narrative that is too powerful to be dispelled.

The Bright Line Watch initiative that I am co-organizing with John Carey (Dartmouth), Gretchen Helmke (Rochester), and Susan Stokes (Yale) has released its first expert survey results on the state of American democracy:

Despite an atmosphere of pessimism or panic among many observers and public intellectuals, the political science community holds a rather nuanced view of democratic governance in the United States as of February 2017. They rate the U.S. as performing well on many of the criteria that they say are most important for democracy. For instance, 86% say the United States fully or mostly meets the standard that elections are free and fair and approximately 80% say the same for the standards of protecting free speech and the judiciary limiting executive power.

The results, however, also provide significant reason for concern. Fewer than two-thirds (66%) are as confident that journalists can operate unimpeded by the state, that the elected branches respect judicial independence (65%), or that government agencies are not used to monitor and harass political opponents (60%). Only the barest majorities are confident that Congress can effectively check the executive or that executive authority can be constrained within constitutional limits (52% and 51%, respectively).

For more, see coverage at The Upshot and our mission statement on the Bright Line Watch website.