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.@jbplainblog debunks @mattbai "fantasy that once upon a time ‘party leaders’ picked candidates, while now the voters do" http://j.mp/gYzM5s
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| A plain blog about politics: Oy, Bai | ||
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Despite hype about Obama not connecting, @mysterypollster shows he’s doing better than Clinton despite worse economy http://j.mp/fG5a0D
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| Obama’s Problem Is Not About ‘Connecting.’ It’s The Economy. Washington’s political punditry remains taken with the notion that President Obama is failing to “connect” with average Americans. Yet polling data and political science tell us that Obama’s pro… |
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RT @ProfStevenSmith: A Reporter’s Guide to Filibuster Reform: http://wc.wustl.edu/news/455
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| Reporter’s Guide to Filibuster Reform | Murray Weidenbaum Center | ||
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Fox News and Betsy McCaughey hammering "death panels" again — video from @tpmmedia http://j.mp/i18X6N
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Fox News: Are Death Panels Back? Death Panels Are Back! | TPMDCFox News was all about “death panels” this week. No, it’s not 2009. |
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Wow – Judy Miller joins Newsmax (http://j.mp/e3gt6H), home of quality journalism such as this: http://j.mp/feRWJB (via @kerrylauerman)
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| Terrorism, Money, and Drugs | ||
| Deck of Weasels Exposes America’s Worst | ||
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I’m quoted in a Hill story on the potential effect of GOP cuts on Obama’s re-election http://j.mp/gJBxHH Reality is major cuts are unlikely
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| Liberals fear spending bill failure could come back to haunt Obama – The Hill’s On The Money They argue Obama and congressional Democrats will come to regret not moving a yearlong continuing resolution or omnibus bill. Left-leaning think tanks already disappointed with President Obama’s… |
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Twitter roundup
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Twitter roundup



Politico overstates importance of location of Obama campaign HQ to 2012 campaign http://j.mp/hm155P As always, tactics over fundamentalsObama eyes Chicago campaign HQ – POLITICO.com Print View
POLITICO covers political news with a focus on national politics, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2008 presidential race, lobbying, advocacy, and more. POLITICO’s in-depth coverage includes video f…
WSJ says end-of-life counseling provision "is not coercive and gives seniors more autonomy" (but defends Palin) http://j.mp/gKH6Hg
Review & Outlook: Death Panels Revisited – WSJ.com
The Wall Street Journal says the left won’t admit that Sarah Palin had a point about rationed care.
End-of-life consultations in Medicare created in 2003 under noted "death panel" advocate GW Bush http://j.mp/fUZTm5White House attempts to quiet revived talk of ‘death panels’ – The Hill’s Healthwatch
The administration says a Medicare rule concerning end-of-life-care planning is a continuation of a policy enacted under President Bush. The Obama administration is trying to quiet talk about so…
Correction of previous tweet: Law allowing discussion of end of life planning under Medicare passed over Bush veto in ’08 http://j.mp/iiv9ZV
Medicare Will Pay for End-of-Life Talks – WSJ.com
New Medicare guidelines allow doctors to get reimbursed for holding voluntary end-of-life consultations with patients during annual medical checkups.
Also, McCaughey doesn’t object to new reg. allowing conversations about end-of-life options during annual wellness visit http://j.mp/iiv9ZV
Medicare Will Pay for End-of-Life Talks – WSJ.com
New Medicare guidelines allow doctors to get reimbursed for holding voluntary end-of-life consultations with patients during annual medical checkups.
Useful summary of health care reform provisions going into effect on January 1 http://j.mp/h70FjF (bottom part of article)Key healthcare provisions take effect as GOP moves into House – The Hill’s Healthwatch
Key parts of the new healthcare law will go into effect on Jan. 1, just before the Republican-controlled House returns to Washington.
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Media amnesia on “death panels” myth
One of the most frustrating aspects of the media’s coverage of politics is the way they treat deceptive factual claims. As I’ve often pointed out, these claims are often reported in a “he said,” “she said” format that provides readers with no indication that the statement in question is misleading or false. And even when reporters do characterize these statements accurately, it rarely creates a lasting precedent within their news organization. Instead, these outlets typically suffer a sort of factual amnesia in which subsequent reports tend to revert to “he said,” “she said” coverage.
Coverage of the “death panels” and euthanasia myths is a case in point. As I noted last year during the initial debate over the claim, both ABC News and the New York Times reverted to describing the facts of the matter as being in dispute after previously describing the claim as false. We saw the same pattern this past week after news broke that the Obama administration planned to fund voluntary discussion of end-of-life options between Medicare patients and their doctors (a provision that was mischaracterized as “euthanasia” or a “death panel” during the debate over the House health care reform bill last year). The New York Times, which previously called the “death panel” claim “false,” managed only to call the claim “unsubstantiated” in an aside in the 22nd paragraph of its story on the regulation. And the Associated Press, which also previously described the claim as false, provided no indication that the claim was even in dispute.
The irony is that the media have elaborate policies about mundane consistency issues like how to spell various proper names, but getting the facts straight on one of the most important myths in contemporary American politics is apparently too difficult for anyone to bother.
Update 12/28 12:09 PM: To clarify per Rob’s comment below, Sarah Palin’s initial Facebook post coining the term “death panel” did not cite the end-of-life counseling provision and focused instead on (the imagined consequences of) rationing. However, Palin herself cited the end-of-life counseling provision as additional support for her claim only a few days after the initial statement. The two ideas quickly became intertwined in the public debate as opponents of health care reform suggested that seniors would be pressured to end their life sooner or have their treatment withdrawn (e.g. Chuck Grassley saying we shouldn’t “pull the plug on Grandma”) — see my article on health care misinformation for more. As such, I think it’s justified to use “death panels” as a shorthand for the way in which the end-of-life provision was mischaracterized.
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Twitter roundup



As predicted (http://j.mp/c9Fe3v), overemphasis on Obama staff as cause of/solution to structural political problems http://j.mp/gYxThiBlaming staff for structural problems – Brendan Nyhan
Back in January, I predicted a rash of process-based explanations of President Obama’s declining political fortunes in 2010: During the next eleven months, it will become increasingly obvious th…Obama’s insular White House worries his allies – latimes.com 
Barone counters redistricting hype: “When opinion changes, it turns out some of those 53% districts aren’t yours anymore” http://j.mp/i5CSra
Redistricting Looms Large in Congress – NYTimes.com
With Republicans poised to build on their gains from the midterm elections, Democrats are trying to save their jobs.
Abercrombie’s desire to debunk birthers is laudable http://j.mp/eeYq1q but there’s an article he should read… http://j.mp/aSxxEo (PDF)
Hawaii’s Governor Seeks to Silence ‘Birthers’ – NYTimes.com
Neil Abercrombie, who knew Barack Obama’s parents, is incensed at those who assert he was born in Kenya.
http://j.mp/aSxxEo
WSJ column subhed: "Charitable gifts are a cheerful protest vote against the growing state." http://j.mp/fhgkGO Actually, no.
Arthur C. Brooks: Tea Partiers and the Spirit of Giving – WSJ.com
In The Wall Street Journal, American Enterprise Institute President Arthur C. Brooks writes that charitable gifts are a cheerful protest vote against the growing state.
RT @kwcollins: Congressional leadership scores estimated from non-reciprocity in bill co-sponsorship networks: http://bit.ly/dYjqTJNumerical methods for determining leadership and ideology in Congress : GovTrack.us Blog 
Media amnesia on "death panels" continues w/AP failing to debunk myth http://j.mp/fmdgLw Called it "false" in Aug ’10 http://j.mp/gyOr0MIf Media Won’t Correct The “Lie Of The Year,” What Will They Correct? | Media Matters for America AP debunking of Vitter’s “death panels” rhetoric – Brendan Nyhan
If you missed it, Senator David Vitter (R-LA) made comments last week that played on the continuing misperception that health care reform has created “death panels” (see my article [PDF] in The …
Weak-kneed NYT calls "death panels" "unsubstantiated" http://j.mp/eF97dD But as paper wrote in ’09, the claim is false http://j.mp/dUmRaL
Obama to Enact End-of-Life Planning for Medicare – NYTimes.com
Advance care planning, which touched off a political storm over “death panels,” will be covered under Medicare — a “quiet victory” for supporters.False ‘Death Panel’ Rumor Has Some Familiar Roots – NYTimes.com
Rumors that President Obama’s health care plans would create “death panels” began with some of the same media outlets that helped defeat President Clinton’s health care plan.
Obama reg. funding end-of-life planning will revive "death panels" myth http://j.mp/ezQfZl Why it won’t die: http://j.mp/aXR0HA (PDF)
Obama to Enact End-of-Life Planning for Medicare – NYTimes.com
Advance care planning, which touched off a political storm over “death panels,” will be covered under Medicare — a “quiet victory” for supporters.
http://j.mp/aXR0HA
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Twitter roundup



Beware the tactical fallacy – pres. messages reflect state of economy, which drives results, creating false correlation http://j.mp/g2MTiCA Winning Script for the GOP in 2012 | FrumForum
Everyone is already focused on who the next Republican presidential candidate will be. But as my latest column for The Week points out, the more important question is: what will that candidate s…
The best No Labels/Ghostbusters II analogy ever – @daveweigel wins the Internet: http://j.mp/f3gsHB #nolabels #rickmoranisWeigel : No Labels: Hey, You’re Welcome for the Lame Duck!
Have you seen Ghostbusters II ? Do you remember how Rick Moranis’s character uselessly fires his laser at the art museum while the Ghostbusters are inside of it, saving the world, and how when t…
.@jbplainblog: Newt is "Sarah Palin without enthusiastic supporters but with a marital record worse than John Edwards" http://j.mp/eUfu0dA plain blog about politics: Catch of the Day 
Cynthia Tucker: GOP "unpatriotic" for opposing START http://j.mp/g0EiAn Tucker, 6/7/08: "Our patriotic duty to dissent" http://j.mp/eu7trLRepublicans’ unpatriotic resistance to New START | Cynthia Tucker
There is simply no modern precedent for the behavior of Republicans in the U.S. Senate. They are not only hyper-partisan, but they are also petty, petulant andOUR PATRIOTIC DUTY TO DISSENT | Palm Beach Post | Find Articles at BNET
OUR PATRIOTIC DUTY TO DISSENT from Palm Beach Post provided by Find Articles at BNET
No way #slatepitches can top this RT @ModeledBehavior The most Slate-esque sentence in the history of Slate http://j.mp/dJNApeThe most Slate-esque sentence in the history of Slate 
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Haley Barbour’s macaca incident
Here’s what I just wrote on Politico Arena about the effect of Haley Barbour’s comments in the Weekly Standard about the issue of race in his hometown:
It was always hard to take Barbour’s presidential aspirations seriously, but this incident would seem to rule him out entirely. The controversy over the Weekly Standard article may be a two-day story, but it creates a pretext for deeper coverage of his questionable history with race. That dynamic hurt George Allen after the macaca incident, and it is likely to do the same to Barbour. Even playing the victim card will only take him so far.
In addition to the link above on Barbour’s past history with race, see also here.
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Twitter roundup



Regardless of effect of tax cut deal on 2012, it will be framed as turning point in media narrative of any Obama comeback http://j.mp/fAXkSNObama 2.0? 
Why Facts Fail – Point of Inquiry podcast interview with me by @ChrisMooney_ http://j.mp/eqRFzfWhy Facts Fail – Brendan Nyhan | Point of Inquiry 
Gail Collins – recycling hero! 12th mention of Romney’s dog since 8/07. >7% of columns since mention dog or Bristol Palin http://j.mp/gY89pZ
The Gingrich Who Stole Christmas – NYTimes.com
Here’s a holiday gift guide for those especially excited about the Republican presidential primary season.
Really, Meet the Press? A No Labels founder and two speakers at the launch event are all in the roundtable? http://j.mp/dFLD3C #nodiversityMeet the Press- msnbc.com
Meet the Press
I think this needs one more level of analysis // RT @Slate: RT @vanityfairmag: The Top 10 Worst Top 10 Lists of 2010 http://is.gd/iUCiqThe Top 10 Worst Top 10 Lists of 2010 | VF Daily | Vanity Fair
The things that make a Top 10 list great
More from @joelmeares on loathsome Boehner alcoholism speculation column, which he nominates as one of the year’s worst http://j.mp/h804hFA Boehner Column to Make You Cry : CJR 
Boyer on ’95 shutdown: "Clinton’s approval ratings rose as Gingrich’s plummeted" http://j.mp/icfW4s False – Clinton flat: http://j.mp/dQIXckJohn Boehner and the Tea Party Congress : The New Yorker
Online version of the weekly magazine, with current articles, cartoons, blogs, audio, video, slide shows, an archive of articles and abstracts back to 1925The Monkey Cage: Does Divided Goverment Help Presidential Approval? 
New PIPA survey on misperceptions http://j.mp/ijAykY But contra @jayrosen_nyu, correlation w/Fox viewing not necessarily causal
http://j.mp/ijAykY
PIPA study on misinformation wrongly interpreted as demonstrating causal link to TV news in NYT headline http://j.mp/i4grKqFox and MSNBC Misinformed Some Viewers, Study Says – NYTimes.com
A study of news coverage released Friday by WorldPublicOpinion.org found that “substantial levels of misinformation” seeped out to the electorate of the United States at the time of the midterm …
George Will doesn’t like No Labels either! http://j.mp/dVINCp They’ve created bipartisanship… in disliking No Labels. #nolabelsPOLITICO Forums:POLITICO Playbook Summary: Obama to sign tax cut at W.H. this afternoon — Krauthammer: reelection ‘more likely than not’ — 239 days to Ames straw poll â A political Pulitzer — Chris Matthews, Jeanne Cummings b’day – POLITICO.com
POLITICO.com Open Forum is a forum to debate and discuss national & presidential politics to drive the political conversation throughout the day.
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Twitter roundup



Douthat must-read on "The Strange Case for Mitt Romney" http://j.mp/hSnUOr GOP wonks want to believe he’s one of them, but no one knows…The Strange Case for Mitt Romney – NYTimes.com
Is his sincerity problem a sign of a deeper seriousness?
PolitiFact names "government takeover of health care" its "Lie of the Year" http://j.mp/eM35cS Used 90+ times on Boehner site, 200+ on RNCPolitiFact | PolitiFact’s Lie of the Year: ‘A government takeover of health care’
In the spring of 2009, a Republican strategist settled on a brilliant and powerful attack line for President Barack Obama's ambitious plan to overhaul America's health insurance system. …
In honor of his last show, my favorite Larry King tweet RT @kingsthings: Of all the muffins, corn is my favorite.
Irresponsible column speculating Boehner is an alcoholic http://j.mp/hzUAkT Doctors quoted should be ashamed. Don’t practice in the media!
John Boehner’s Crying: Is He Drinking Too Much?
After Boehner welled up during a recent interview on
Do reminders of Obama increase or decrease anti-black prejudice? Mixed results: http://j.mp/gqqhLh http://j.mp/eTioDE http://j.mp/fwYQx3ScienceDirect – Journal of Experimental Social Psychology : The Obama effect: Decreasing implicit prejudice and stereotyping ScienceDirect – Journal of Experimental Social Psychology : Revisiting the Obama Effect: Exposure to Obama Reduces Implicit Prejudice ScienceDirect – Journal of Experimental Social Psychology : The Effect of Obama Saliency on Individual-Level Racial Bias: Silver Bullet or Smokescreen? 
In a tight ’12 campaign (which is what econ forecasts suggest), small change in electoral votes could have a big effect http://j.mp/hJzYg3Weigel : Obama Starts 2012 With Six Fewer Electoral Votes
The very useful site 270ToWin.com lets you play out the 2012 elections with various re-apportionment scenarios. The first thing I notice is that if reapportionment goes as most people expect it …
Beware of simplistic stories about single genes "causing" human behavior http://j.mp/fpBbeM
Does the Slut Gene Exist? – The Daily Beast
Probably not—a single gene can’t make you have one-night stands. Casey Schwartz on the modern-day phrenologists who say particular genes can make us violent, religious, or a Democrat.
Tactical fallacy alert: "[m]ore optimistic" presidential candidates tend to win b/c favorable conditions breed optimism http://j.mp/gGxb6L2012 Election Preview: The Final Candidate Rankings | Mr. Media Training
Likely 2012 Presidential Candidates Ranked By Communications Skills; Better Communicator Has Won Every General Election Since Beginning of 24/7 Media Age in 1980
New Politico Arena post on research showing no double standard for female candidates who show emotion (fourth response) http://j.mp/gqqSrgCongressional Crybaby Caucus? – The Arena | POLITICO.COM
The Arena is a cross-party, cross-discipline forum for intelligent and lively conversation about political and policy issues.
G. Collins says female politicians who cry are judged more harshly http://j.mp/fhgW1T Maybe by media, but not the public http://j.mp/g8m7Lv
The Crying Game – NYTimes.com
John Boehner is able to overcome his emotions on matters unrelated to John Boehner and the American Dream.Brendan Nyhan’s response to ‘Congressional Crybaby Caucus?’ – The Arena | POLITICO.COM
Brendan Nyhan’s response to ‘Congressional Crybaby Caucus?’
Randomized trial of legal services in unemployment cases finds clients made worse off (win % unchanged, more delay) http://j.mp/gdzKHCSSRN-What Difference Representation? by Daniel Greiner, Cassandra Pattanayak
SSRN-What Difference Representation? by Daniel Greiner, Cassandra Pattanayak
.@jbplainblog: Thune is "Beltway candidate w/ essentially no campaign, & no constituency, out where [GOP] actually live" http://j.mp/giOZHCA plain blog about politics: It’s a Trap! 
BTW Romney could the Kerry of ’12-no one’s in love w/him, but may get the nom as least objectionable candidate (w/Palin playing Dean’s role)
@BrendanNyhan McCain was the Kerry of ’08.
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Kaiser scaring customers about health care reform?
One of the questions I’m most interested in is whether misperceptions about health care reform, which plagued the debate (PDF) over President Obama’s proposal, will decline as the law is implemented. I’m not optimistic. Given the continued flow of criticism from the right and the extent to which people rely on their prior beliefs in interpreting new information, it seems likely that false claims about the law will be a continuing problem for years to come.
However, things may be even worse than I thought. One factor I hadn’t anticipated is the potential incentive for insurers and other stakeholders to appeal to anti-reform sentiments using potentially misleading language. For instance, Kaiser Permanente recently distributed a flyer to members in California (PDF) which ominously warns that “health care choices may be limited” starting in 2014 and that anyone who changes plans “may need to choose a government-mandated plan”:
While Kaiser does not make any false claims about the changes that will result from the law in 2014, members who have negative preconceptions about the law may read that language as suggesting that the government will restrict their choice of health care. In fact, many of the most important benefits provided by the law take effect in 2014. As a result, a number of people will have more choice over health care and better benefits starting that year (though of course others may find that their plans and benefits change in less advantageous ways).
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Twitter roundup



.@mattyglesias: "correct response [to polarization] is to tweak the institutions" not "wishing for label-free politics" http://j.mp/f7SgrgYglesias » In Praise of Labels 
Bizarrely, No Labels had Akon make a track about them. Lame platitudes… auto-tuned! http://j.mp/hj21oF #nolabelsAkon’s No Labels Anthem | No Labels 
$3M health care prediction challenge http://j.mp/ffHqKE$3M health care prediction challenge – Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 
Shocking that Halperin’s story on possible Obama comeback mostly ignores economy http://j.mp/gSaFpF See also @joelmeares: http://j.mp/dHFF9T
What Obama Needs to Make a Comeback: Nothing Short of Luck – TIME
The coalition that got President Obama elected has been shattered. Rebuilding a politically robust alliance may be the biggest challenge of his career, and he will need happenstance and skill if…Halperin’s Shaky Premises : CJR 
Boston Herald says court decision on mandate could hurt Romney http://j.mp/fg8DYG No effect on Intrade price yet though http://j.mp/gt4RO4
Health Care Lawsuit Could Hurt Romney
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire — News, polls and buzz2012.REP.NOM.ROMNEY 16:51 
Correction: Stoch. Democracy estimates that tax cut deal results in .75% *decline* in vote for Obama due to frontloading http://j.mp/hvgTUU
Stochastic Democracy: Political Consequences of the Tax-Cut Comprimise
Related: Timing of expiration of the stimulative parts of the tax cut deal reminiscent of Obama’s handling of the Fed
http://j.mp/dUiDVoDecember 2011 – NYTimes.com
Setting up another hostage situation.
Tactical fallacy alert: "Democrats lost heavily in the midterm elections partly because they told no shared story." http://j.mp/f7X6YRPolitical Bookworm
– Nothing like a Republican yarn
About this blog: The art of storytelling has a long history on the political stage. In the modern era, nobody spun a better yarn than Ronald Reagan and it served him well. As David M. Ricci show…
Yet more… RT @SteveKornacki Bai seems unaware that the Reform Party was created 3 years AFTER Perot’s ’92 campaign: http://bit.ly/ef2XFDIs the New York Times trying to make us dumber? – War Room – Salon.com
The paper prints even more ridiculously ignorant political analysis from Matt Bai — this time about Mike Bloomberg
C. Beam: "both the Stewart rally & No Labels have the same flaw: They promote ‘civility’" but "the problem is structural" http://j.mp/fxZ0OgThe new political group No Labels shows why labels exist. – By Christopher Beam – Slate Magazine
Everything you need to know about the new political group No Labels is contained in its slogan: “Not Left. Not Right. Forward.” It’s smug. It sounds like an Obama campaign catchphrase. And it ig…
Once again @mattbai makes political scientists cry – yet more on what he got wrong today from @jbplainblog: http://bit.ly/eLuzVFA plain blog about politics: Oy, Bai 
The scale of LA: "One out of every 19 people in America live within an hour’s drive of the 60 and 57 (intersection)," http://j.mp/i4pk98Downtown NFL stadium called ‘pipe dream’The Orange County Register 
First Dems compared GOP to terrorists and hostage-takers, now gangsters http://j.mp/fW8aqA
Nadler: Obama gave in to ‘a bunch of gangsters’ in tax deal with GOP – The Hill’s Blog Briefing Room
Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.
From 1955 to 1961 there was 1 time when a vote was called to break a filibuster. In the past 2 years, there have been 84. http://j.mp/h1vucs
Senate having trouble ‘doing business in the modern era’
Last week, the U.S. Senate failed for the first time in 48 years to pass an annual bill authorizing money for national defense – not over disagreement about the part of the bill that would repea…
