Brendan Nyhan

  • Obama didn’t politicize “swine flu”

    My UM RWJ colleague Hans Noel alerts me to the bizarre claim by the Daily Beast’s Kent Sepkowitz that President Obama politicized the H1N1 “swine flu”:

    Now that Obama has formally declared swine flu a national emergency, he has moved the virus from the realm of public health into the too familiar and greedy world of politics. Rather than hearing those quaint details about how to cover a cough or watching local shmokel not-ready-for-TV doctors say whether to go to the ER, we now will get the standard he says-she says spouting off…

    Instead we’re focusing on the chess match, the eternal micro-discussion of what everything really means: whether Obama is playing it up now to gin up support for his health-care initiative; whether the Republicans should stand up against something as flagrantly pinko as universal vaccination; what the cost in votes and press might be of standing here or moving there. The declaration of an official national emergency has reduced the H1N1 epidemic to something like the aftermath of a grim tornado—the president choppering in, a governor in a fleece coat and hardhat, a few lost souls picking through the rubble, some cute kids wearing PJs wandering in the bright daylight.

    I hate to break it to Sepkowitz, but H1N1 was politicized long ago. In addition, Obama’s declaration, while dramatic-sounding, was actually a fairly mundane bureaucratic maneuver. Declaring a national emergency allows the adminstration to waive federal requirements that could hamper hospitals’ ability to respond to the pandemic. It is unfortunate that the H1N1 debate has become so politicized, but Sepkowitz is wrong to blame Obama for what’s happened.

  • Marshall promotes Vitter slur

    The decline of Talking Points Memo continues with a post in which Josh Marshall strips a phrase out of context to try to link Sen. David Vitter to rape and sexual assault:

    Ouch

    Dem challenger, Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) says “we can only guess” David Vitter’s reasons for opposing the anti-rape amendment.

    In fairness, Vitter’s thing seems to be paying for sex rather than forcing sex. But, well …

    Read in context, it’s far from obvious (though possible) that Melancon’s phrase was a reference to the allegations that Vitter patronized prostitutes:

    If a company wants to receive taxpayer dollars, they should not be able to force victims to give up their constitutional rights as a condition of employment.

    David Vitter has refused to explain why he voted to allow taxpayer-funded companies to sweep rape charges under the rug. We can only guess what his reasons were.

    Tell David Vitter that sexual assault victims deserve their day in court.

    Nonetheless, Marshall uses the release to bring up the allegations against Vitter (which do not include rape) and link them with sexual assault, ignoring the fact that the amendment concerns military contracting rules that are irrelevant to Vitter’s legal/political problems. Marshall doesn’t explicitly endorse the linkage, but tacitly legitimizes it with a half-hearted “But, well…” at the end of the post. Classy!

  • Campaigns and chicken suits

    I love that Jon Corzine is being followed around by a guy in a chicken suit during his gubernatorial reelection campaign in New Jersey:

    Corzine.650.3

    Some guy in a chicken suit walked alongside the governor the entire way, saying nothing. Corzine seemed not to notice. Finally, driven by curiosity, I asked the chicken what he was supposed to represent. He held up a sign. It said: “Jon Corzine raised your taxes. Ask him why.”

    All good campaigns involve guys in chicken suits. It’s practically a law of politics.

  • Gingrich’s presidential posturing

    Department of unlikely scenarios:

    Said Gingrich: “Callista and I are going to think about this in February 2011. And we are going to reach out to all of our friends around the country. And we’ll decide, if there’s a requirement as citizens that we run, I suspect we probably will. And if there’s not a requirement, if other people have filled the vaccum, I suspect we won’t.”

    On behalf of America, let me say that there is not and will be no “requirement” that Newt Gingrich run for president. He’s been saying he’ll run if people want him to for years, and — surprise! — it turns out that there’s no real demand for a Gingrich presidency.

  • Joe Klein suggests Fox is “seditious”

    After 9/11, conservatives repeatedly attacked dissent against President Bush as treasonous. Now one center-left commentator is taking a similar approach.

    In a Friday column criticizing the administration’s offensive against Fox News, Time’s Joe Klein suggested that some Fox News content “borders on sedition” and consists of “seditious lies”:

    Let me be precise here: Fox News peddles a fair amount of hateful crap. Some of it borders on sedition. Much of it is flat out untrue.

    But I don’t understand why the White House would give such poisonous helium balloons as Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity the opportunity for still greater spasms of self-inflation by declaring war on Fox.

    If the problem is that stories bloated far beyond their actual importance–ACORN’s corruption, Van Jones’s radical past–are in danger of leaching out of the Fox hothouse into the general media, then perhaps the Administration should be a bit more diligent about whom it hires and whom it funds.

    If the problem is broader–that Fox News spreads seditious lies to its demographic sliver of an audience–the Administration should probably be stoic: the wingnuts will always be with us.

    This is the worst attack on dissent by a pro-Obama commentator that I’ve seen since he took office. Fox’s coverage of the White House is frequently unfair and misleading, but that doesn’t constitute sedition (Merriam-Webster’s: “incitement of resistance to or insurrection against lawful authority”).

  • Jacob Weisberg v. Fox News

    Jacob Weisberg’s attack on the slant of Fox News strikes me as a defense of a dying paradigm:

    That Rupert Murdoch may tilt the news rightward more for commercial than ideological reasons is beside the point. What matters is the way that Fox’s model has invaded the bloodstream of the American media. By showing that ideologically distorted news can drive ratings, Ailes has provoked his rivals at CNN and MSNBC to develop a variety of populist and ideological takes on the news. In this way, Fox hasn’t just corrupted its own coverage. Its example has made all of cable news unpleasant and unreliable.

    What’s most distinctive about the American press is not its freedom but its century-old tradition of independence—that it serves the public interest rather than those of parties, persuasions, or pressure groups. Media independence is a 20th-century innovation that has never fully taken root in many other countries that do have a free press. The Australian-British-continental model of politicized media that Murdoch has applied at Fox is un-American, so much so that he has little choice but go on denying what he’s doing as he does it. For Murdoch, Ailes, and company, “fair and balanced” is a necessary lie. To admit that their coverage is slanted by design would violate the American understanding of the media’s role in democracy and our idea of what constitutes fair play. But it’s a demonstrable deceit that no longer deserves equal time.

    Is it really fair to say that Fox “made all of cable news unpleasant and unreliable”? All three are responding to market forces — Murdoch was simply the first to recognize that a cable news channel with an ideological/partisan slant could attract larger audiences.

    Also, while I have no love for Fox, which is a frequent conduit for misleading claims, it’s not clear to me that non-“objective” journalism is in principle bad for American democracy or “un-American.” The sad reality is that the “he said”/”she said” reporting style practiced by the establishment media legitimizes far more misinformation than Fox ever will. As my co-authors and I argue in the conclusion to All the President’s Spin, responsible but non-“objective” journalism is sometimes better at countering spin than the mainstream press. With a few exceptions, Fox tends to fail to produce that sort of journalism, but there’s no reason to think it couldn’t be produced here in the US.

    At a more general level, I see Weisberg’s comments as part of a pattern in which elite pundits decry the decline of the “objective” press and/or bipartisanship, which are held up as intrinsic to American democracy. What they often don’t realize or appreciate is that both were historical anomalies.

    Consider objective journalism. Until the late 19th/early 20th century, the press was largely partisan. This pattern didn’t change until economies of scale in printing created incentives to attract a larger audience by producing independent newspapers (see Jay Hamilton’s All the News That’s Fit to Sell). Similarly, the only television news available for many years came from the broadcast networks, which faced regulatory pressures and economic incentives to provide “objective” coverage as well. However, the economic incentives facing media outlets have changed and it seems likely that non-“objective” sources will again play a large role.

    Along the same lines, elites have tended to privilege bipartisanship as crucial to the legislative process, but it too was an unusual feature of 20th century democracy. The troubled racial history of the South created a virtual three-party system in Congress, reducing polarization substantially:

    House_and_senate_polar_46109

    As the South became largely Republican and the parties realigned on the issue of race, the system returned to the previous norm of polarization that we observe today.

    In short, our system of government is more flexible than people realize. We’re moving toward a more partisan era in Congress and the press, but that isn’t necessarily bad for democracy.

  • PPP poll on Obama’s love of country

    A national survey by Public Policy Polling found that 48% of Republicans (and 26% of Americans generally) endorsed the unsupported smear that President Obama doesn’t love America (27% of Republicans said Obama does love America and 25% were not sure). Those numbers are even worse than the myth that Obama wasn’t born in this country, which was endorsed by 42% of Republicans (and 23% of Americans generally) in a September PPP poll.

    Update 10/23 2:05 PM: As a point of comparison (per Jinchi’s comment), a Fox News poll in June 2008 asked “How much do you think Barack Obama loves America?” (rather than “Do you think that Barack Obama loves America?”). 27% of Republicans said “a great deal,” 34% said “somewhat,” 14% said “not much,” 12% said “not at all,” and 14% said they didn’t know. Though the question and response options varied slightly, those responses are substantially more positive than those found by PPP.

    Update 10/25 8:42 PM: Per MartyB’s comment, it’s worth clarifying that the reason I compared the two posts above. While the two claims obviously differ in terms of the extent to which they can be disproven, both polls demonstrate that Obama is not viewed as a legitimate president by much of the GOP base.

    (Cross-posted to Pollster.com)

  • Communist kitsch alert

    Sunday’s LA Times story on the commercial exploitation of Mao Tse-tung in his hometown was weird enough (Mao snow globes!), but today’s NY Times brings news of my favorite bit of Communist kitsch ever: the “Ho Chi Minh Golf Trail”,* which the Times describes as “a series of eight courses whose label is as good a sign as any of where Vietnam seems to be headed — its heroic wartime past redefined as a sales pitch.” What’s next — gulag resorts?

    * For those who don’t know, the original Ho Chi Minh Trail was a key supply route for the North Vietnamese during the Vietnam War.

  • The Petraeus for president boomlet

    Bloggers have done a good job of listing the reasons the David Petraeus for president boomlet is silly and unlikely to succeed. The central problem is that potential biography candidates like Colin Powell in 1996, Wes Clark in 2004, or Petraeus haven’t ever run for political office. I don’t think most people realize how difficult it is to be a presidential candidate. Doing it successfully for the first time in the TV/YouTube age is almost impossible, particularly since you now have to win a major party nomination against candidates with stronger partisan credentials than you. (Watch one of Clark’s debate performances if you don’t believe me.) And even if one of these candidates turned out to be competent, they would be less formidable than most people think. As Jason Zengerle points out, the reason these people are so widely respected is that they are seen as being above politics. That aura disappears very quickly once you become just another politician.

    Update 10/15 12:40 PM: Ryan Lizza’s 2004 TNR blog post on the failure of Clark’s presidential campaign does a nice job of summing up what can go wrong in one of these candidacies.

  • AP asks if Obama is too articulate

    Liz Sidoti of the Associated Press has written the most insipid news analysis on the Obama presidency in recent memory. Here’s the key passage, which culminates in Sidoti asking if Obama is “obnoxiously articulate”:

    Obama has been a constant presence in the mass media as he expands the bureaucracy’s reach into the private sector while presiding over national debates on issues that have become the focus of arguments over big government.

    In doing so, he has created a quandary. Put aside for a moment the question of whether government is actually intruding into people’s lives more than before. The point is that many people feel like it is — in part because Obama doesn’t stop talking about his goals. If President George W. Bush got slapped around for being inarticulate, is Obama obnoxiously articulate?

    Sidoti’s “analysis” perfectly combines the media fetish for up-is-down counterintuitive analysis with its lack of understanding of how American politics actually works. In fact, the logic of her argument is precisely backward. Obama isn’t struggling to pass his agenda because’s he’s a “constant presence in the mass media”;* he’s a constant presence in the mass media because he’s struggling to pass his agenda.
    (And isn’t it obvious that if Obama were less visible Sidoti and her colleagues would be writing pieces about how he’s failing to promote his initiatives?)

    The reality is that the president has relatively little formal power in the legislative process — he’s largely at the mercy of a handful of conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans in the Senate who determine the fate of filibusters. However, journalists like Sidoti tend to exaggerate his role in order to construct entertaining narratives.

    In this case, however, the narrative isn’t even entertaining; it’s idiotic.

    *Note that Sidoti is forced to admit later in the piece that she has no empirical support for her claim:

    While Obama has been criticized for being too visible, AP-GfK surveys in the spring and summer found that most people say he is on TV about the right amount.

    Still, he runs the risk of making people tune out. President Franklin D. Roosevelt scaled back the frequency of his fireside chats for exactly that reason.

    Update 10/14 9:22 AM: It’s even worse than I thought. I suggested above that “if Obama were less visible Sidoti and her colleagues would be writing pieces about how he’s failing to promote his initiatives.” In fact, as Jinchi points out below, Sidoti did precisely that approximately one month ago in a piece that condemned the president for failing to “articulate his vision” on health care:

    [N]o one seems to know what the president seeks [on health care] or what change will mean for them.

    “Confusing,” says William Rhon of Steubenville, Ohio, a laid-off machinist. “I don’t know what he wants to do,” says Phil Axworthy, a Pittsburgh software developer. And Janet Wood, also of Pittsburgh, complains about “too many stories and rumors,” saying: “I’d sort of like his basic outline of actually what the plan is.”

    A failure of leadership? Or simply a failure to communicate? Are those things the same when a complicated issue is so important to so many? And if a president can’t articulate his vision on something so sprawling and all-encompassing, how can he lead?

    In short, Sidoti criticized Obama in early September for failing to “articulate his vision” on health care. Obama then gave a nationally televised speech laying out his position on the issue and continued to speak out about health care and other issues in the following weeks. The result? Sidoti suggests that he is “obnoxiously articulate” because he hasn’t “stop[ped] talking about his goals.” In other words: heads I win, tails you lose.